A side effect to US Marines in Australia?

[Supertom]

Somebody let me know if this was discussed before, but...

...I was listening to the radio about what a big deal it is that the US Marines will get to train in Australia.  First, a quote from an Australian general (in that famous Aussie accent) that where they'll be training, there are "crocs every 200m on the rivers, the most venomous snakes in the world, etc" and then it switches over to a comment from a Marine commander who said he was looking forward to training in some of the toughest environments in the world, and that there would be no shortage of volunteers who would want to try this out.

Anyway the commentator said that not only China was concerned, but also Indonesia, and that both were worried that this would bring the US and Australia closer together (militarily).  With this in mind, I was wondering - with the mentality of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," China might be a natural ally for Indonesia - I can imagine Chinese aircraft carriers making stops in Indonesia, fighter sales (think J-11s, J-10s, JF-17s).

Like I said, it sounds quite plausible, and I'd be surprised if someone never whiffed the idea before.

[MilitaryAircraft101]

Maybe. But of course China won't be happy about US Marines in Australia! 2500 Marines for "training" in Darwin will definitely increase any first strike capability if it came ot that. But Indonesia has bought 6 Su-30s and is buying 50 "KF-X" Stealth fighters from South Korea, so most likely purchase would be J-11s, as they'd already have the infrastructure for Su-30s.

[rickshaw]

Why do you assume that China would be a "natural ally" for Indonesia?

In reality, the Indonesians and the Chinese have been at odds for most of the last 47 years or even longer.   In particular, unde the "New Order" regime of Suharto, the Indonesians were staunchly anti-Communist and perceived the PRC as the greatest threat to their nation.  Since the deposing of Suharto, Jakarta has somewhat modified its stance and decreased the rhetoric but they are still very wary of Beijing, particularly its ambitions in the South China Sea, where Indonesia has a stake because Kalimantan (Borneo).  The fact that the PRC has claimed the rather appropriately named "Mischief Reef" as their own some time ago, whilst Indonesia had a long, historical claim on it, hasn't endeared the PRC to Indonesia.

All regional nations will, of course be suspicious of any increase in the presence of US forces.  The numbers, while initially small may well grow as the US decides it might be a good idea to remove the bulk of its forces from Guam and Okinawa in the face of a possible first-strike by Chinese conventional IRBMs.   Australia, because of its political stability and close alliance with the US, close cultural similarity and its geographic position, will be an ideal alternative.

As to US Marines training in the Top End of Oz.  I am wary of their presence.  Personally, I have no desire to see Canberra moving any closer to Washington than it is.  We have an unfortunate history of getting entangled in the United States' wars and over-identifying Washington's interests as our own since we signed the A**US Treaty in 1951.   However, I fear this will be moving into the realm of Politics if I continue.

I'll simply say, the Marines will find the Top End definitely challenging.   Saltwater and Freshwater Crocodiles infest the waterways.  We host 10 out of the world's top 12 venomous snakes.   We have numerous species of venomous spiders, shellfish, jellyfish and octopi.   Buffalo are also very dangerous.   They'll also find it very lonely.  Where they are going to be stationed is by all reports literally in the middle of nowhere and a long way from the fleshpots of Darwin.   The climate is particularly debilitating, with temperatures often in the high 40s (Celsius) and the humidity often reaching 100% (and yes, I know that means its basically raining but often it will be in the high 90s and won't rain.  ).  The Dry and The Wet are like chalk and cheese, both bring their own challenges to military operations.   Its not impossible to operate in The Top End, just damn hard.