Nimrod MRA.4 a future Whif?

[AeroplaneDriver]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/7315686.stm

Looks like the MRA.4 is in danger of going the way of the AEW.3.  Surely there is someone out there working on a conversion for hte Airfix Nimrod, I wonder how this news will affect them?

I'm torn over the news, on the one hand, the MRA.4 is waaaay overdue and overbudget, but on the other hand it has potential to be a very capable platform, especially if and when they eventually fully exploit the latent bomber capability.  On the other hand, there will still be a need for a multi-role recon/surveillance/maritime patrol platform, so would it be so bad if cancellation led to a BIG order from Airbus encompassing someting like 20 A330 tanker/transports (hence binning the PFI fiasco) and 15 A320 Nimrod replacements.  Maybe they could even get Toulouse to throw in an extra A320 for free so the PM doesnt really have to show up at major world events on a commercial flight!

Anyhoo...sad news for Nimrod fans if it comes to pass.

[Thorvic]

Unlikely unless the Nimrod MR4A fails to meet its requirement. Its basically been a botch job from the start the proposal was rushed through and grossly under costed, the requirements was conatantly changed by the customer and the programme was badly managed by BAE and the MOD.

To be honest if it was cancelled then Boeing P-8's would most likely be purchased as Boeing was responsible for the system in the MR4A and much of this experience was channelled into the P-8.

Airbus would be unlikley, unless EADS had a demonstrator ready to fly and met the requirement. To be honest BAE should have gone down that route in the early 90's as it could have taken over the military aspect of Airbus design and production as the experience was already in the country (EADS setting up the Military side in Spain has probably cost them as the Spanish Military used off the shelf Tanker and ASW aircraft so had no previous experience to bring to the equation).

G

[nev]

They've paid this much into it, and if its cancelled they're only going to have to go and buy some replacements from somewhere, so they may as well bite the bullet and see it through. 

[B777LR]

After all that development time (they started it over 10 years ago, didnt they?), they are going to cancel it at last!

Honestly though, it shouldnt have been alowed come this far. It is an outdated airframe, and no matter how good the computers are, it is, and will always be a DH Comet variant.
Now they will end up ordering Boeing P-8 Poseidons, and because the P-8 has already entered final development, BAe wont be able to join development.
Alternatively, they could order the Airbus A319 ASW aircraft, but it hasnt even been launched yet, and i dont think a small order from the RAF could cover up the costs of development. France doesnt need it yet, nor does the Netherlands or Germany, and India didnt want it.

[Jennings]

Looks like the MRA.4 is in danger of going the way of the AEW.3.

To quote my favorite line from "Casablanca":

"I'm shocked, shocked to find gambling going on in here!"

Anyone who ever thought the MRA.4 would see service, stand on your head.  I thought so....

I predict RAF upgraded (interim) P-3C Update III's from surplus USN stocks while the P-8 is brought online.  Which is what the RAF should have been involved in in the first place.

J

[AeroplaneDriver]

So you guys really think that after years of development and tons of money spent the UK government will simply cancell a Nimrod development and go with an off-the-shelf Boeing product instead??

Yeah, like that would ever happen...









Sentry

[Captain Canada]

That would be a shame...the Nimrod is one of my favourites !

[upnorth]

Well, regardless of whether it should have been allowed to come so far, it has been.

I think as far as the MR.4A is concerned they really should be taking the "In for a penny, in for a pound" line of thinking. They didn't go into the project as if it was a half measure, why should they treat it like one after its come so far?

Sometimes watching these projects is like watching porn films; the companies work and work as if they really mean it, their advertising departments get everyone worked up in anticipation and then right at the last moment the pull out and make a mess everywhere.

It reminds me a lot of that Commanche stealth helicopter business; look at how far that went and how much money and hype were put into it, and for what? whole lots of nothing.

[Nigel Bunker]

July 2018
The Chief of the Air Staff denied that both the RAF's Nimrod MR4s were not available as they were under repair.


Well the buy is steadily dropping from around 24 to around 18 to around 12................

[nev]

It reminds me a lot of that Commanche stealth helicopter business; look at how far that went and how much money and hype were put into it, and for what? whole lots of nothing.

Problem with the Comanche as I understood it, was that they wanted a scout helicopter to replace the Kiowa and were going to get an attack helicopter that left the Apache in its rotor downwash.  And all the capability came at a cost at a time when the Sandpit was starting to suck in billions of dollars.

But yeah. billions of dollars on an incredible helicopter that went nowhere.

[upnorth]

It reminds me a lot of that Commanche stealth helicopter business; look at how far that went and how much money and hype were put into it, and for what? whole lots of nothing.

Problem with the Comanche as I understood it, was that they wanted a scout helicopter to replace the Kiowa and were going to get an attack helicopter that left the Apache in its rotor downwash.  And all the capability came at a cost at a time when the Sandpit was starting to suck in billions of dollars.

But yeah. billions of dollars on an incredible helicopter that went nowhere.

As I recall an attack ability above that of the Apache, or even on par with it, was not part of the original Commanche parameters but rather added in somewhere along the road. Its prime function was to be a scout helicopter with a secondary attack ability. Had they stayed with that the Commanche might have panned out, however, someone of some influence decided to make it an all singing all dancing solution to both the Kiowa replacement requirement and a replacement for the Apache as well.

That "something for everyone" approach became nothing for anyone.

If you look at the new Nimrod, you can see similarities as they are trying to get one airframe to do all that it used to and then some. Case in point is bringing the Nimrod's bomber potential around to be a bigger part of the picture, is it really required? I'm sceptical myself. I think that feature would get used as much as the Sidewinders ever were when on Nimrods.

Just as unrequired development of a secondary feature on the Commanche played at least some part in the overall failure of the whole thing, I have a distinct feeling that trying to build on a similarly secondary feature of the Nimrod may help bring an end to the new variant.

As for the notion of the RAF taking on P-3s, that would have been a bad call if they had. Like the Nimrod is the progeny of an old airliner, so is the P-3. Both airframes really were products of their time, not easy to upgrade from structural standpoints as they weren't designed modularly and really both designs have been maximized as it is.

I'm honestly not sure that the whole idea of aircraft based ASW is so relevant anymore anyway. I would think it would almost be an ideal job for UAVs data linked to surface ships. Put a Global Hawk up high and send info back from it to a surface ship. The surface ship could have smaller UAVs to launch from its deck that could lay out sonobuoys based on readings from the Global Hawk. The ship could mount an attack on a submarine before the submarine could get within any respectable striking distance.

Given the length of the average ASW sortie (hours) this really would be a good use for the UAV in my view.

[Aircav]

Its our taxes that is paying for the over priced project, its the same no matter what the project is, once the HMG gets involved the price goes through the roof, if you can buy off the shelf then we should no matter where its from.
ps, these will be the same workers that while employed by a car company decided to go on strike because they were closing the factory down.

[Spey_Phantom]

Doe Dassault still ofer the Atlanique III with the 6-bladed prop 
i would love to see someof those in RAF/RN markings.

maybe airbus can offer a Maretime patrol aircraft version of the A-330. in combination with the KC-330 the RAF ordered yesterday. it would be much easier to get the spares and joint maintainance.

other aircxraft i would offer is the PC-130J, ATR-72 Maretime, P-8A (Poseidon MRA.1).

it would be a sad sight to see this nimrod getting cancelled 

[Jennings]

Let's not get holier than thou about taxpayer money being wasted.  Every nation on earth has a claim to the title of stupidest waste of taxpayer money under its belt.  The question is, does the RAF need a 60+ year old basic design costing gazillions to "update" to "modern" standards (which, as it turns out, were one of a kind, hand built airframes to start with, and thus fantastically expensive to maintain and modify), or does it need a modern, up to date airframe and systems package to get the job done?

Those of us in the US could say the same about MANY projects.  The KC-45 tanker is a great example.  We've spent zillions trying to figure out what's best, and when the AF decided (correctly) that the EADS entry was best, the wail and cry went out that we should buy local.  Bollocks (as you say).  Buy what's best, get the most bang for the buck, period.  If I held to the "only buy local" I wouldn't be driving a Honda Civic Hybrid that gets 50% better fuel efficiency than almost anything else on the road.  I buy what works best.

J

[B777LR]

Doe Dassault still ofer the Atlanique III with the 6-bladed prop 
i would love to see someof those in RAF/RN markings.

maybe airbus can offer a Maretime patrol aircraft version of the A-330. in combination with the KC-330 the RAF ordered yesterday. it would be much easier to get the spares and joint maintainance.

other aircxraft i would offer is the PC-130J, ATR-72 Maretime, P-8A (Poseidon MRA.1).

it would be a sad sight to see this nimrod getting cancelled 

Atlantique is out of production, so it would have to be laid off German and Dutch frames...

Using an Airbus A330 would be a bit of a waste. Much too large, and i am not sure how those great big flexy wings would do in low altitude in a storm. It hasnt even been proposed, and it needs a lot more fuel than the alternatives...

The PC-130J, does it even excist as a proposal?

The ATR-72 Maritime would have a very good chance. In service, low in costs, but on the downsides it has shorter range, and flies very slow...

P-8A Poseidon is a good fit as well. Fast as the Nimrod, already developed, good range, and Boeing could probably throw in a BBJ or two as well as an Wedgetail. Downsides are the high costs (as we all know, the RAF is very cash strapped)

Other possibilities:

Bombardier Global Express based ASW aircraft. The RAF already operates the Sentinel R.1 (based on the Global Express). Could be quick to create.

Airbus A319 MPA. Still only a proposal though. An order for 12 for the RAF wouldnt be enough for Airbus to create it. Wouldnt be delivered until 2016 at least.

http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=12946