Airfix

[zenrat]

The free Airfix Calendar in my subscription copy of Airfix Model World has a pic of a Javelin for October.
I take this to be a hint that next year's SMW announcement from Airfix will be an all new 1/72 Javelin.

And a Rotodyne.

[rickshaw]

The free Airfix Calendar in my subscription copy of Airfix Model World has a pic of a Javelin for October.
I take this to be a hint that next year's SMW announcement from Airfix will be an all new 1/72 Javelin.

And a Rotodyne.

Nope.  It is a reissue of their 1/48 beast of the Javelin.

I would hope the Rotodyne was reissued as well.   

[NARSES2]

Bit of financial news. Hornby, Airfix's parent company, lost £2.71m in the six months to September which was an improvement on the same period last year. The Chief Exec was quite upbeat, as were most of the commentators, however and said that among other plans they intend to invest in their website and on-line service as with the sad demise of local hobby shops this is obviously the way the world is going.

[PR19_Kit]

....... said that among other plans they intend to invest in their website and on-line service as with the sad demise of local hobby shops this is obviously
the way the world is going.

It's WHY the demise of the local model shops is happening! They are the cause of it!

[kevincallahan]

....... said that among other plans they intend to invest in their website and on-line service as with the sad demise of local hobby shops this is obviously
the way the world is going.

It's WHY the demise of the local model shops is happening! They are the cause of it!

Bit of a "chicken or egg" situation here. Personally, I think that the online shops have simply presented a better business model and the capitalist survival of the fittest has manifested itself. Why would I go to a brick and mortar hobby shop and pay full MSRP when I can go online and generally get a good discount?

[Old Wombat]

....... said that among other plans they intend to invest in their website and on-line service as with the sad demise of local hobby shops this is obviously
the way the world is going.

It's WHY the demise of the local model shops is happening! They are the cause of it!

Bit of a "chicken or egg" situation here. Personally, I think that the online shops have simply presented a better business model and the capitalist survival of the fittest has manifested itself. Why would I go to a brick and mortar hobby shop and pay full MSRP when I can go online and generally get a good discount?

Plus, unfortunately for your average LHS, they have the capacity to stock a wider variety of kits, detail sets, upgrade kits, decals, etc.

It's sad but even I buy much more online now than I do locally, despite being a "Buy Local" fanatic.

[Snowtrooper]

A properly run LHS is usually the best source of advice (since I'm too lazy to google and watch Youtube videos), and if you've run out of glue/paint/putty/lacquer/tools it's more convenient to get them from the LHS than ordering online. Also impulse buying is for me still much much more intuitive in real life than online. You can't turn the package in your hands in the virtual world (yet). Also in those LHS's which have second-hand kits you can find some real bargains compared to the Bay of Evil prices.

Though, if I know I want a certain kit, then the poor LHS is doomed even if they had the kit in stock, unless they have competitive pricing. One local store downtown sells their kits at about double the going price (I'm still wondering how they keep afloat), while another in a less gentrified district manages to sell sometimes at less than the usual online prices (bearing in mind Finland is logistically an island so avoiding postage can often make or break the deal). Alas, I'm not willing to pay extra just for a high street location, so I'll continue supporting the latter when convenient.

But even the budget LHS's are only kept afloat because the manufacturers agree to sell to them at bulk prices. If the manufacturers started selling kits online at or only slightly above bulk prices, well, then the LHS's are well and truly doomed. However, I don't see this happening even though the manufacturer would get the same money either way, because the manufacturers do have a very good incentive to keep at least some of the LHS's in business. And the reason are new entrants to the hobby: I don't see that many people getting into kit building just by asking around on the forums or watching YouTube, versus them having at least the first contact at a friendly LHS.

[Weaver]

I think there's a generational problem with LHSs, together with all the pressures of running any small business.

Many LHSs seem to have been started in the 1960s or 70s, with their leases running out in the 21st century, just as their proprietors are reaching retirement age. It's very tempting for the latter to just shut the business down, sell it all off and cash in to fund their retirement, rather than conduct a long and possibly fruitless search for somebody to hand it on to.

The chance of finding somebody relatively young to hand an LHS on to is diminished by two factors acting simultaneously. Firstly, there's the ageing demographic of modellers, which means there are relatively few energetic youngsters in the hobby compared to weary 50-60 year olds who want to take on the slog of running a small business. Then there's the internet option, which might seem newfangled and unnatural to the older generation, but which is air and water to the younger.

Of local hobby shops that I've seen close, one went online only because it made more business sense (lower cost, bigger market), one couple retired and sold the stock to another shop out of the area, and one closed down because he was offered a salaried job by one of the distributors and he was tired of wondering whether he'd be able to pay his bills every month.

Going physically to an LHS doesn't make much logical sense at all these days, and is more a matter of emotion and bloody-mindedness. What you are essentially doing is burning fuel, time and money to travel/drive/park in order to see a very limited selection of the total available kits on the market, at prices that have to support a high-street shop's rent and it's staff's salaries. You mostly won't be able to find out any more about the kits than you can online, because even if they'll let you open one box, how many more will they let you open? It only really makes sense for things that are difficult to ship via retail-level delivery services, such as paints and glue.

By using things like Ebay, I can access a significant fraction of all the kits, new and 2nd hand, for sale in the world, and the retailers on their can, in turn have a chance at selling to me. If wanted to start a hobby business today, I wouldn't even contemplate a high-street shop. I'd get a low-rent warehouse on a industrial estate, with easy travel options and cheap/free parking, I'd fill it to the ceiling with kits that were as unique as I could find, and I'd sell 99% online. I'd also have a small retail counter at the front so people could come and get those urgent glue/paint supplies at unsociable hours and pick up kits they'd ordered to avoid postage, but that's it. Those local or 'expedition' walk-in customers would be being served as essentially a good-will based marketing exercise: they wouldn't be the profit-drivers of the business.

[PR19_Kit]

If the 'LHS is doomed' scenario is taken to its logical conclusion one would have to say that ALL shops, and therefore town centres are also doomed and we're going to end up with a situation where everything is bought on-line.

Frankly I just don't believe that, the entire fabric of the current Western world would come apart.

As a motorsport fan I've bought Autsport magazine every week for over 40 years to keep in touch with the sport. In recent years the magazine has expanded to an on-line version for which they expect to me to pay even more, In my case that's not going to happen, but their business model has now got so slewed that they put up the price of the printed magazine to almost £11.00 from its previous £4.00!!! And now they're saying that no-one's buying  the printed mag (now THERE'S a surprise!) and they've reverted to the previous price.

That's just an example of why a wholly on-line world won't work, people want to SEE and hold things before they buy them, nit just look at a 2D image on a screen.

[Old Wombat]

If the 'LHS is doomed' scenario is taken to its logical conclusion one would have to say that ALL shops, and therefore town centres are also doomed and we're going to end up with a situation where everything is bought on-line.

Frankly I just don't believe that, the entire fabric of the current Western world would come apart.

As a motorsport fan I've bought Autsport magazine every week for over 40 years to keep in touch with the sport. In recent years the magazine has expanded to an on-line version for which they expect to me to pay even more, In my case that's not going to happen, but their business model has now got so slewed that they put up the price of the printed magazine to almost £11.00 from its previous £4.00!!! And now they're saying that no-one's buying  the printed mag (now THERE'S a surprise!) and they've reverted to the previous price.

That's just an example of why a wholly on-line world won't work, people want to SEE and hold things before they buy them, nit just look at a 2D image on a screen.

Don't kid yourself, Kit. Unfortunately, there's a whole new generation coming through for whom online via their "smart" phone is as real as it gets & books are an act of environmental vandalism perpetuated by fossils of the pre-electronic era (IE: you & me).

There has been some kick-back against online shopping here in Aus but it's coming from the 25-35 age bracket whose formative years involved more bricks-&-mortar store shopping, not the 18-25 age bracket who have been raised almost entirely in the smart phone era.

[PR19_Kit]

Don't kid yourself, Kit. Unfortunately, there's a whole new generation coming through for whom online via their "smart" phone is as real as it gets & books are an act of environmental vandalism perpetuated by fossils of the pre-electronic era (IE: you & me).

It would do them good to remember that they wouldn't exist, with their amazingly privileged electronic life, if it wasn't for us old fossils producing those ancient scrolls for their electronics to be invented with! 

they Some years ago I had an up-and-downer with a guy at a car show who was complaining about the lengthy seat belts on his MGBGT. I suggested that may just be the saving of his life one day if some other idiot crashed into him.

He said 'But who would use such a ridiculously long length of belt?' and I replied 'Actually I did!' and proceeded to tell him why they had to be that long................

There's always a reason for seemingly crazy things happening.

[NARSES2]

If the 'LHS is doomed' scenario is taken to its logical conclusion one would have to say that ALL shops, and therefore town centres are also doomed and we're going to end up with a situation where everything is bought on-line.

You obviously haven't seen Croydon town centre lately then Kit ?

Most of my local model shops (say a 15 mile radius) closed well before the Internet was around. Mainly, as Weaver says, because of leases ending, the owners retiring and their clientele numbers diminishing. The bigger chains Beaties/Modelzone were forced out by increasing rents and again diminishing clientele numbers.

The strange thing is that the increase in attendance we have been witnessing at UK shows, particularly the number of female and younger modellers has probably been driven by the Internet ? Personally I feel quite upbeat about our hobby, it will just be different.

As a motorsport fan I've bought Autsport magazine every week for over 40 years to keep in touch with the sport. In recent years the magazine has expanded to an on-line version for which they expect to me to pay even more, In my case that's not going to happen, but their business model has now got so slewed that they put up the price of the printed magazine to almost £11.00 from its previous £4.00!!! And now they're saying that no-one's buying  the printed mag (now THERE'S a surprise!) and they've reverted to the previous price.

Totally agree kit. One of the reasons I'm going to the London show on 8th December is that it's organised by SAM and they will be in attendance. I want a word 

[Snowtrooper]

I would guess that the modelling scene will experience a lot more overlap with miniature wargames, and especially the painting of boardgame figures. My opinion is that these are gateway hobbies all the same, a wargame/boardgame figure on a "scenic base" is a vignette or even a small diorama in all but name. (Which is why Games Workshop is so obsessed about calling its business "the Games Workshop Hobby" and avoiding the terms like miniature wargames, model kits, etc. and selling everything possible from PVA glue to paint guns under their own brand in their own stores, lest their customers realized there is an entire world of alternatives in gaming, figures/kits, and modelling supplies, but that's another topic.)

Normies (say, in the 20 to 45 group, based on experience) have been really starting to get into boardgames over the past decade (miniature wargames are still safely neckbeard territory), which themselves are getting quite figure-heavy as of late (partially due to Kickstarter and the quest to be able to advertise how many millions of financing pre-orders you gathered there, but that too is another topic). Rewind ten years, and local pubs had at most chess and Trivial Pursuit available for clients (if you didn't bring your own). Now, when people have realized that board games more adult and infinitely better than Monopoly exist, and it's quite common to have at least Carcassone, Ticket to Ride, Catan, 7 Wonders, etc. and even a couple of "gamer" titles, and it's also commonplace to see several tables occupied by gaming groups.

Upon seeing painted figures, quite a few people - including women - have been like "wow, you can paint these figures yourself?" and after explaining how and where to get the supplies and more advice to do so have been "wow, so you built those model airplanes yourself too?". Some have even made the fateful trip to the LHS to be inducted into our dastardly underworld. Maybe they will get into proper model kits at some point, maybe not, but I don't see them ordering things from the manufacturer or hunting kits on eBay just yet and even the purchase of supplies is helping to keep the LHS afloat.

---

Out of the LHS's in town, I would say that they each have found their niche, so the biggest threats remaining should be manufacturers deciding to cut out the middleman altogether or owner retiring (it helps that supermarkets and department stores no longer really carry model kits). One is almost like Weaver described, specializes in planes, ships, and military vehicles and usually has some interesting second-hand kits too, and has its own webstore (and recently had a succesful ownership change). One specializes in model railroads so carries a wide assortment of scenic stuff (also has webstore). One is more specialized in cars and RC stuff (and has webstore). One is basically a crafts shop with the model kits, railroads, and RC on the side (no webstore). Then there's three "traditional" (non-video) gaming stores (all with webstores), and one of them has quite a respectable supply shelf.  And then there's the Official Warhammer Store (admittedly, GW's "technical paints" are actually novel and useful, if expensive). Note that there is an equal number of gaming stores and "proper" modelling stores, and that's why I think that board game and wargame miniatures are the future entryway to kitmaking.

[jcf]

I'd say Gundam is a greater gateway to plastic modelling, the popularity of anime being a factor, than gaming.

[Weaver]

If the 'LHS is doomed' scenario is taken to its logical conclusion one would have to say that ALL shops, and therefore town centres are also doomed and we're going to end up with a situation where everything is bought on-line.

Frankly I just don't believe that, the entire fabric of the current Western world would come apart.

As a motorsport fan I've bought Autsport magazine every week for over 40 years to keep in touch with the sport. In recent years the magazine has expanded to an on-line version for which they expect to me to pay even more, In my case that's not going to happen, but their business model has now got so slewed that they put up the price of the printed magazine to almost £11.00 from its previous £4.00!!! And now they're saying that no-one's buying  the printed mag (now THERE'S a surprise!) and they've reverted to the previous price.

That's just an example of why a wholly on-line world won't work, people want to SEE and hold things before they buy them, nit just look at a 2D image on a screen.

People want to see and hold SOME things before they buy them. Clothes are the best example. I've seen all kinds of innovative attempts to sell people clothes that fit over the internet, but even the guys who send you a motion-capture suit to get your exact body shape (yes, really) have very hit-and-miss results. On the other hand, if I need some brake pads for my car, I'm not going to spend hours driving around all the local car spares shops on the off-chance that they've got them in stock, and why should I let them order the pads for me when I can go online and do it myself?

I don't see the high street dying out completely, but it's having to pivot towards different kind of business:

1. Hands-on shopping, like clothes
2. Time-critical shopping, like food and some DIY supplies
3. 'Event' shopping, where you make shopping part of a day/afternoon/evening out by combining it with restaurants, cinemas and live events

Why are there so many bloody coffee shops everywhere? Because you can't drink coffee over the internet...

The entire fabric of the Western World will just have to adapt, as it has before. Companies will still deliver goods to shops, but those shops will be mail order warehouses on out-of-town industral parks. This is pretty much what Amazon has already done. The consequences for the number of retail jobs is dire, but then that's part of a wider picture: if the tech giants get their way, driverless cars are going to start putting the truck drivers out of a job soon. This is why some people are now talking seriously about Universal Basic Income, i.e. the idea that the era of a job for everyone who wants one is over, and the government, not the marketplace will have to act as the mechanism that redistributes wealth within society in order to avoid anarchy. The social and psychological consequences of that are a WHOLE other topic...

As for face-to-face interactions, you'd be amazed how many people, and not just youngsters, eagerly embrace ANYTHING that helps them avoid having to deal with a stranger face-to-face. They LOVE unmanned tills, automated fuel stations and the internet for primarily that reason. It's so safe...