Prussia and Federal Austrian Empire in the 20th Century

[James]

  Yes, Liberal was really the wrong word. Those east-elbian junkers were not the most liberal of people.

[NARSES2]

Must admit I've a lot of reading to catch up with at the moment (curse Waterstone's 3 for 2  ), but I may well pick this book up in paperback

[James]

Well worth it Chris. Can't recommend it enough.
http://www.waterstones.com/waterstonesweb/products/christopher+clark/iron+kingdom/5899360/

[NARSES2]

Thanks mate - I'm in Croydon tomorrow. I'll have a look. If not it's on-line

[James]

After briefly touching on the subject in another thread, what are people's opinions on the Federal Austrian Empire – The United States of Austria? What if Franz Josef had died earlier (say 1890) and Franz Ferdinand had become Kaiser of the Hapsburg Empire. The implications on early 20th Century Europe would be massive imo.

[NARSES2]

Now that's something to muse on. I do have some thoughts but I've never really thought them through to the end. The problem, which I've always avoided, is the innate conservatism of the Hungarian Kingdom withing the Dual Monarchy and the effects that would have had on Ferdinand's proposals ?

However if he could have got them through then WWI might still happen if the new "Commonwealth of Austria/Hungary" * had looked to the South East and the break up of the Turkish Empire. If it had however then perhaps the Slav parts of this new Commonwealth would have stayed loyal ? If he had concentrated on internal politics then perhaps no WWI ? Or maybe a Germo/Russian War ?

As I say a lot to think about  .

Chris

* I use the word Commonwealth deliberately as I don't think Ferdinand ever envisioned a truly Federal State, purely one where the individual "nations" had some level of internal autonomy dependent on their perceived level of preparedness. That is the Czech & Italian lands would have been seen to have a high level whilst the Slav lands would not have been seen as having the same level of internal institutions ? Therefore the level of autonomy would have differed ?

Chris

[James]

However if he could have got them through then WWI might still happen if the new "Commonwealth of Austria/Hungary" * had looked to the South East and the break up of the Turkish Empire. If it had however then perhaps the Slav parts of this new Commonwealth would have stayed loyal ? If he had concentrated on internal politics then perhaps no WWI ? Or maybe a Germo/Russian War ?

Indeed Chris. The plans don't include Bosnia IIRC so would be interesting to see what a semi-autonomous Croatia would do when the Turkish withdraw from Bosnia. Would Serbia attempt to snatch it or would Serbia move close to Austria (through Croatia) and away from Russia? A whole host of other issues could result from this.

BTW, did you pick up the Iron Kingdom book?

[NARSES2]

Indeed Chris. The plans don't include Bosnia IIRC so would be interesting to see what a semi-autonomous Croatia would do when the Turkish withdraw from Bosnia. Would Serbia attempt to snatch it or would Serbia move close to Austria (through Croatia) and away from Russia? A whole host of other issues could result from this.

BTW, did you pick up the Iron Kingdom book?

Not sure Croatia would have been semi-autonomous. It would have had limited internal self governance whereas the Czech lands would have had a higher level of self goverment ? Serbia/Austria was a fight waiting to happen unfortunately but may have turned out differently or just stayed as a cold war if the Serb lands within the Commonwealth had some autonomy.

And yes I did pick Iron Kingdom up. Looks good

[James]

Another thing to consider is what if (somehow!) Austria and Prussia managed to sort out their many issues with each other and the Frankfurt Parliament had founded a Greater Germany as originally planned with borders to match the German Confederation, giving a 70m strong Germany a coastline on the Adriatic at Trieste by the mid 19th century?

[NARSES2]

Not aware of this. Would it have included Prussia ? Would this Germany have had a North Sea and Baltic coast as well ?

Would probably have given France a coronary and possibly stopped Russia looking to the South East and Turkey. Indeed you might just find Russia and Turkey with a common enemy ?

[James]

The North Sea/Baltic coast would remain - and I imagine that war with Denmark would also occur for the same reasons it did in our timeline. The map below shows the German Confederation in 1820.

It's mentioned in William Carr's 'A History of Germany 1815-1945'. Greater Germany, with the Habsburgs as Kaiser and the King of Prussia as commander in chief of the imperial army. Similar to the HRE, the princes would keep their titles and lands. Yes, Greater Germany would have included West and East Prussia (which were excluded from the German Confederation) but it would have initially excluded Posen (which would have remained as Hohenzollern lands but outside of the Reich, but allied to the Reich – basically German possessions in Europe) until it could be brought in later after the pacification of polish nationalism which was starting to cause problems at the time the plans were being put forward prior to and including 1848. As Frederick William IV said, when he rejected the crown of Little Germany on 3rd April 1849 'Germany without the Tyrol, Trieste and the Archduchy [of Austria] would be worse than a nose without a face'.  

I imagine you are right about Russia and Turkey. Britain was always on good terms with both Austria and Prussia. Palmerston certainly thought that a unified Germany of any kind would stop the westward spread of Russia, as Britain had thought about a strong Prussia in the past as a way of keeping France and Russia at bay.

[NARSES2]

Thanks James that's really interesting.

My "O" Level European History sylabus only covered 1870/1952 (UK covered 1850/1956) so my European history is a little weak pre the Franco-Prussian War (apart from the major conflicts when "we" were involved*). Have to admit it is something I am trying to remedy with my retirement reading but I keep getting sidetracked by finding books on S American history or on Asian and African history pre European colonisastion 

* I use "we" deliberatly because depending on which period/war you are looking at this can be England, Great Britain or the UK - with apologies to Geoff etc but Wales had always been considered part of England in this context post the Anglo-Welsh wars. Geez our Island's terminology can drive you round the twist sometimes 

[James]

Greater Germany as proposed above prior to 1850 would have had so many what ifs? The more I think about it the more I come up with?

Would France and Russia have allied themselves with each other? Would Germany have made a preventative strike? Would Britain look to ally themselves with Germany?  What would be the effect on the Crimean War? How would Greater Germany effect the Italian unification (Risorgimento) – Prussia was in favour of a unified Italy, would this have changed? Would Poland have reappeared in some form from parts of Austrian and Prussian partition areas?

My heads starting to hurt just thinking about that and that's only before 1860.

[NARSES2]

My heads starting to hurt just thinking about that and that's only before 1860.

I know how you feel, it completely changes all my previous held ideas on European history post 1850. Something to spend time musing over.

Can you tell me what the colours mean on the map - don't want to start off with any missunderstandings 

[James]

No probs,

Yellow = Austrian Empire
Blue = Kingdom of Prussia
Grey = minor German states of the German Conf.
Red = boundary of German Conf.