Idle thoughts -- West Indies Federation, now working on the Navy

[rallymodeller]

Idly thinking on an alternate history thing (as I often do) and I ran into a conundrum.

Without going into too many details, there is this country that in the past almost happened; well, it did happen, sort of. In any event, in this version of history the country was founded and was eventually successful as these things go, with the one AH change that they found a moderate amount of oil in a part of their territory (not unrealistic considering the geography). Not outstandingly wealthy, but moderately well-to-do and a power of sorts in the region where they are located, mainly due to their geographic location.

At the moment, their air force is mainly composed of RAF handoffs (due to the history of the country); combat aircraft include Phantom FGR.2s, Buccaneers, some Jaguars and Harrier GR.3s, and a few aging Lightnings. Since the RAF is retiring Tonka F.3s, they're getting a few of those, too. They also have good relations with France and the US, and have a few refurbished Mirage IIIs (similar to Switzerland's) which were basically a gift from France.

However, a neighbor with whom they don't get along has been busy, busy, busy. They recently bought Su-30s and the Air Force Command of our little nation has realized that despite their own upgrade programs (improved electronics and airframe refurbishments to the Lightning, for example) the Flankers outmatch anything in the Air Force's roster. When the two countries did fight back in the early Eighties the opposing nation got their clocks cleaned, but the tables have now turned.

So they went shopping. They have a need for a smaller fighter to perform air defense duties. The F.3s that are coming online are perfect for the interception role, as the nation is vast in area and they do a lot of interception (again, due to geography and what travels through their airspace).  But the Flankers are worrisome. They don't need a whole whack of new aircraft, just a couple of squadrons to replace the Lightnings (the Tonkas are replacing the Phantoms which were pretty old when the country bought them from the RAF in the late Eighties). The new fighter program is mainly to deter the other nation from doing anything stupid now that Opposing Nation has advanced combat aircraft. There are ongoing border disputes that could flare up. I should also mention that treaties between the UK, our little country, and a third nation exist, and Opposing Nation has a longstanding dispute with Third Nation as well that could flare up into a shooting war.

So given that, and the country's limited budget, what would you folks suggest? It has to be something good at dogfighting, needs to be new enough that airframe life is not a problem, and can't cost a ton of money. Of course, the three countries (UK, USA and France) get preferential treatment as far as choice goes, and the Russians are basically locked out of the competition (so no Sukhois or MiGs) because of their dealings with Opposing Nation.

Here are the candidates I had in mind (older aircraft would be refurbished and/or updated where necessary)

USA:
Ex-USAF F-15Cs with updated avionics and maybe new engines
Ex-USN F/A-18Cs, same
F-18E "Lite" -- Super Hornet airframe and engines with radar and electronics from Legacy Hornet
F-16s, of a later block (40-50?), although this might create other problems

Europe:
Eurofighter Typhoon "Lite" -- reduced electronics capability, but airframe and engine intact. Still expensive.
Dassault Rafale "Lite", same deal with M2000 radar and so forth
Ex-AdA Mirage 2000-5s modified for Sky Flash and Sidewinders

Outside Shots:
Saab Gripens -- outside candidates as usual, as the nation has never bought anything Swedish before save a couple of SF-340s
Full "Product Improved" Lightning program

I have already ruled out some aircraft (Tomcats are not dogfighters, the Mitsubishi F-2 is a no-go because of export laws, Gripens are basically being ignored because of political pressure from the above named nations, and no Russians for already mentioned reasons) They also need the aircraft soonish, which is why the F-35 has been ruled out; it's also too expensive and too far off.

If you really want to know, I'll let you know the country; however, I have given enough geographic hints that I think some of you might be able to figure it out. One final hint: It's not in the Pacific region, and it actually had a flag and government at one time fairly recently.

So, as usual, thoughts? Sell me some fighters!

[Fulcrum]

It would be good to know what country your refering to, but i'll let it pass.

Looking at the list, here are a shortlist:
-Ignore the "lite"s as it offers a reduced capability
-F-16's would create problems
so...
-F-15C could be expensive
-F-18C a good choice, though with a short range
-Gripen, a first that could be a good decision

I say buy Gripen as Sweden always gives the countries buying the fighter a license of off-set production of local parts, not to menition currently up to date.
The only problem I have for the Gripen is that Saab are allegedly bribing customers to buy their jets(True in Czechia, I think possible with Hungary, South Africa & others with the exception of Sweden itself).
I wasn't bribed, just my 2 cents on porcurment choices.

[Weaver]

Don't BAE have a deal with SAAB whereby they offer the Gripen to customers who can't afford the Typhoon?

Another thought: if Mirage 2000s are on the cards, I wouldn't fall over myself to wire then for Skyflash and Sidewinder, despite the logistic advantages. Su-30s are weakest in the BVR regime, and the OEM missiles for the Mirage arn't half bad: the Super 530D has blistering flight performance and the MICA gives you an active homer without having to beg the Yanks for AIM-120s. If the opposition havn't got R-77s then Mirage 2000 + MICA could give you an edge.....

Speaking of AIM-120s, what do those Tonka F.3s come armed with?

[deathjester]

How about Hawk 200's ?

[rallymodeller]

Seems the Gripen is in the race again.    I had no particular problem with it, I was just trying to stay with RW-style politics but if BAe is backing it, well cool.

Armament? Nine-Limas and Sky Flash ATM, although AMRAAM is on the close horizon. When the Lightnings are retired -- they're fitted for Sky Flash on F.53-style outer-wing pylons -- then the older missile will be retired with 'em. Our Air Force is already training with AMRAAM, so there you go. There is also little need for multi-role capability as Our Air Force has quite a few dedicated attack types. Interception and air-to-air is what is lacking...

[scooter]

What about former SAAF Cheetahs?  Fairly comparable to most of the fighters listed, plus scored about the same as Strike Eagles in ACM exercises.

[Fulcrum]

If Gripen is not possible, you can always fall back on leasing some Mirage 2000C & possibly modify them into a Mirage 2000F-2 configuration.

Forgot to menition it in my post above.

[rickshaw]

I note you've not included any of the new generation Chinese aircraft.  J-10, etc.  The Chinese would be most interested in furthering their influence in a possible oil source country. 

Alternatively, you could simply have them say to all the suppliers - "who ever pays our nation the most wins the contract."  Then let a separate contract for fighter-pilot training using the monies earnt from the purchase deal to pay for the training deal.  Invariably it is the better trained pilot who wins in air combat and all the planes, bar the "lites" are pretty comparable.

Now, who would be the better pilot trainers?

USAF?
RAF?
Israel?
South Africa?
CAF?
RAAF?
PLAF?
Russian Air Force?

I could see a much more interesting competition, with much more interesting results in that, compared to the fighter purchase deal.

[rallymodeller]

After thinking, I guess I was too vague and the backstory is necessary.

The nation is, as I said, based on a real place: the West Indies Federation, a fascinating story in itself. Short version is that the country got a kick in the donkey due to events in Cuba and got their act together. It encompasses Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Turks and Caicos, Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Dominica, St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago (original 1956 members); Guyana joined in 1971, the Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands in 1973 and Belize in 1982. It is set up as a loose political/economic confederation sharing a common defense -- think the EU with one military. Each island group is the equivalent of a province, and the de jure capital is Kingston. However, there have been continuing political issues with Venezuela concerning their border with Trinidad and Tobago; this became more acute after oil was discovered in Trinidadian waters in 1972. The border dispute flared into shooting in 1977. There is also a longstanding issue (once again) with Venezuela vis a vis Guyana, as Venezuela claims a huge chunk of Guyana (true in the RW). Belize's issues with Guatemala are also represented as a very-low-level guerrilla campaign. The third big issue is the drug trade, and the existence of drug cartels is a continuing headache (as I said, intercepting aircraft is a large part of what the WIFAF does, and they are almost all drug-runners. They get assistance from the US for this). The Federation is also a partial NATO member, and a member of the Commonwealth.

Since it was Venezuela getting the modern stuff, the aging WIFAF fleet is causing concern. The good relations with France -- Dominica is smack between French departments Guadeloupe and Martinique -- got them the Mirage IIIs, in exchange for covering air defense for the two islands.

The air defense area is massive. All told, the nation covers over 4000 miles from end to end and the sea areas are vast; in many ways the WIFAF operates more like a string of aircraft carriers than airports. To give you an idea of how much territory we're talking about, here is a map of the spaces involved:



Add Belize, Guyana and the Bahamas to that and you get a LOT of airspace to cover with relatively few planes. Again, the US helps in exchange for intercepting drug runners, but they still need more modern equipment. As I mentioned in the OP, the political atmosphere affected the choice of aircraft. F-15Cs, for example, would be unlikely otherwise. The close relationship with the UK and France gives the Eurofighter, Rafale, Mirage 2000 and all that juicy ex-RAF equipment. I did not mention ground-attack/strike aircraft as that is well in hand already with aging but upgraded Scimitars, Buccaneers, Harriers (in Belize), Jaguars, early GR Tornados (replacing the Scimitars and Buccs) and, since 1996, A-10s in Guyana on anti-drug duties (supplied by MAP and the DEA) that have supplemented A-37s already there. Air-to-air is what is needed.

So there you have it.

As an aside, although I have a decent working knowledge of matters naval, I don't really know the first place to start to give them a decently-equipped maritime force. They're using Lynxes for shipboard work and Orions/Auroras (cost over the Nimrod) and ex-USN Vikings for shore-based ASW but I have not a clue what ships they should be using. Naval-oriented people, help!

Just remember that it's not that populous; about 6.5 million total but spread really widely.

And if one of the mods wants to move this over to Alternate History, I'd be fine with that.   

[Fulcrum]

Long-range, hmmmm....

Maybe add some air-to-air refueling tankers as a added part of any possible deal.

My shortlist is still vaild:
-JAS-39C/D Gripen has fuel tanks & a refueling probe(though there still is a concern with it's range)
-F/A-18C/D Hornet, same as above though with very short range
-Mirage 2000C/D/F can cover the range
-F-15C is a perfect longshot(though you would have to sacrifice a good amount of any natural resources like oil & wood in order to buy just a squadron or two).

[dy031101]

-F-15C is a perfect longshot(though you would have to sacrifice a good amount of any natural resources like oil & wood in order to buy just a squadron or two).

What I'm truly worried about is the US definition of "balance of power", which could be funky at times depending on their politics in the area.

They once told somebody in the effect of "we're selling your enemies brand-new F-16s and you only second-hand F-104s, but don't worry, pray that they can't buy enough AIM-9Ls and AIM-7s and you should do just fine in a war with AIM-9Ns and AIM-9Ps at an acceptable cost...... because we need your enemies in our fight against the Russians."

Fortunately, the West Indies Federation wouldn't be as politically-disadvantaged as that somebody I was talking about though!

[scooter]

Before you even should be thinking about fighters, I'd be looking at how are you going to support them.  That's a lot of cubic miles to cover, and there should be some thoughts on refueling and AEW support.

Long-range, hmmmm....

Maybe add some air-to-air refueling tankers as a added part of any possible deal.

Tankers:
Boeings and DC-10/MD-11s are always a useful choice.  Especially if you're looking at dissimilar refueling methods- hose and drogue or receptacle- and both aircraft can support them.  I know some of the newer Airbus tankers can as well, but I'd want to look at ground footprint as well.  If you're using the local airports for airbases, consider how much of the apron you'll have covered or how much more you're going to have to pour to support it.

AEW:
You're not gonna get Sentries.  Although E-767s are a possibility, as are used Tracers and Hawkeyes.  Shorter supply lines, with parts coming from the States, as opposed to Europe.

That being said, I might go with -15A/Bs, with upgraded avionics packages.  They're not in service, and I think most of them are in the boneyard anyway.  Tornado F2s ADV could be useful as well, as well as (again) ex-SAAF Cheetahs and ex-IDF Kfirs.

Navy-

Destroyers and Frigates- lots of SLOCs in the area, but also lots of choke points for former Soviet submarines in the areas.  Start out with WWII hand me downs, moving up into Perry, Type 23/24, Kidd classes.
Submarines- Diesel Electrics, for the most part.  Maybe even the newer German U-boats, with ceramic batteries and fuel cells.
FACs- definitely.  Good around the shallower waters, maybe even the Pegasus-class hydrofoils when the USN decided to get rid of its brown water capabilities.

[Weaver]

Venezuela has six Lupo class frigates with 8 x Otomats and a targeting helo each, which should give you pause for thought... She also has two type-209s subs.

I'd say you need some modern frigates, not hand-me-downs, or at least not very old ones. MEKO's are always a good bet, and you could probably have picked up some Kortenaers too. I wouldn't put too much faith in FACs though: real world experience has shown that they get slaughtered by helos/strike aircraft unless they're big, expensive and well-defended enough to qualify as corvettes.

[rallymodeller]

Great thoughts, all! I had already thought of some of that, and some of it already has answers:

AWACS: Currently provided by a combination of US-provided AWACS support and ground-based radar (think STRIL-60). The AWACS issue is one that has also concerned the Federation government, but for now the US is handling it so that's OK. But seeing as how Orions are already part of the mix, the Orion-AWACS could be around, too (easy to slot into the history, Orion-AWACS has been around for a while).

In-flight refueling -- To this point, everything the WIFAF has uses probe/drogue, so KC-130s and 707 Tanker/Transports (or VC-10s) would already presumably be in service. Were the F-15 or F-16 chosen, then boom refueling would become an issue. This would definitely affect the choice, and the Mirage 2000 becomes more attractive, although the US might be inclined to toss a couple of KC-135s into any purchase.

Weaver, Tornado F.3s are already coming on line -- as they are retired from RAF service they are being refreshed and sent to the Caribbean (a squadron worth so far - see OP).

Keep the navy suggestions coming! The navy can be created from scratch here, from about 1960-on. The only thing I can see is that AORs and the like probably wouldn't be needed as the navy is always pretty close to a shore base of some sort. There should be an essential British-ness to the navy as well.  I do like the idea of PHMs, though.

[PR19_Kit]

How about using aerostat tethered balloons for the AEW role? There's a lot of of islands where you coul fly them from.