Coventry Show 2021 *CANCELLED*

[Howard of Effingham]

Fingers crossed for announcement on Monday. I've a feeling the Government are preparing the ground (Cabinet Office leaks, unofficial sources etc) for a two/four week extension of the 21st June relaxation date. If they do, especially four weeks, could make this tight.

I think you might just be right. If this does happen its not going to go down well everywhere. 

[kitbasher]

Fingers crossed for announcement on Monday. I've a feeling the Government are preparing the ground (Cabinet Office leaks, unofficial sources etc) for a two/four week extension of the 21st June relaxation date. If they do, especially four weeks, could make this tight.

Oh, I'm convinced 21 June won't happen - frankly I think there's justification for an extension in terms of Delta variant case rises versus vaccination rates.  2 or 4 weeks?  Who knows but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 2 with an option to go to a further 2.

Either way it would present the Coventry organisers with a very difficult choice.  For what it's worth they have my utmost sympathy.

[NARSES2]

In my view the important number is the one we are currently not seeing, without some serious digging and playing with numbers, which is hospitalisation rate, hopefully there will be a full briefing on Monday and one of the professors will tell/show us what it is.

I certainly wouldn't want to be the person making the decision that's for sure. They actually have my sympathy and very few politicians get that.

[kitbasher]

In my view the important number is the one we are currently not seeing, without some serious digging and playing with numbers, which is hospitalisation rate, hopefully there will be a full briefing on Monday and one of the professors will tell/show us what it is.

I certainly wouldn't want to be the person making the decision that's for sure. They actually have my sympathy and very few politicians get that.

Indeed. 

There has been some hospitalisation data, Chris, e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/57403888.  Hospitalisation levels and death rates greatly reduced, clear correlations between hospitalisation and whether jabbed or not.  Also levels of illness if hospitalised apparently lower than previously (politicians hailing this as an indication of the vaccine programme's efficacy). 

[Rheged]

Does this help, Chris?     https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[NARSES2]

Does this help, Chris?     https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

That's the site I eventually found, there's so much data out there. The problem is ensuring the data covers the same geographical area, the same time period and hasn't already been played with - averaged out, rolling averages, estimates and then figuring out the basis of that estimate etc. They seem to change the way they present it all the time and I'd just like the raw numbers. Mind you as it was by playing with data and numbers that I earned a good living for nearly 40 years I shouldn't complain. What answer did you want sir ? 

[kitbasher]

Does this help, Chris?     https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Good link, thank you.

[kitbasher]

Does this help, Chris?     https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

That's the site I eventually found, there's so much data out there. The problem is ensuring the data covers the same geographical area, the same time period and hasn't already been played with - averaged out, rolling averages, estimates and then figuring out the basis of that estimate etc. They seem to change the way they present it all the time and I'd just like the raw numbers. Mind you as it was by playing with data and numbers that I earned a good living for nearly 40 years I shouldn't complain. What answer did you want sir ? 

You'd enjoy https://www.ft.com/content/12573b01-ba98-4f8f-8756-057f2b739250, Chris.

[zenrat]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[kitbasher]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I think you'll find it's 86%, Rattie.  96.3% of the world knows that 

[zenrat]

 

[NARSES2]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I think you'll find it's 86%, Rattie.  96.3% of the world knows that 

It's actually 86.5% so really it depends on how you were taught to round 

Also I'm 60% certain I haven't actually done that, but then the figure depends on if we are talking about pre or post lunch presentations or if we have decided to average them out ? 

[kitbasher]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I think you'll find it's 86%, Rattie.  96.3% of the world knows that 

It's actually 86.5% so really it depends on how you were taught to round 

Also I'm 60% certain I haven't actually done that, but then the figure depends on if we are talking about pre or post lunch presentations or if we have decided to average them out ? 

What do you mean by 'average'? 

[NARSES2]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I think you'll find it's 86%, Rattie.  96.3% of the world knows that 

It's actually 86.5% so really it depends on how you were taught to round 

Also I'm 60% certain I haven't actually done that, but then the figure depends on if we are talking about pre or post lunch presentations or if we have decided to average them out ? 

What do you mean by 'average'? 

Precisely sir  Depends who the client is, who the audience are made up of and most of all what I felt like on the day I drew it all up 

[Howard of Effingham]

87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I think you'll find it's 86%, Rattie.  96.3% of the world knows that 

It's actually 86.5% so really it depends on how you were taught to round 

Also I'm 60% certain I haven't actually done that, but then the figure depends on if we are talking about pre or post lunch presentations or if we have decided to average them out ? 

What do you mean by 'average'? 

Precisely sir  Depends who the client is, who the audience are made up of and most of all what I felt like on the day I drew it all up 

Where then does that put us motley band of whatiffers?