Divergence on the Runway: An Alternate History of Military Aviation (1956-1982)

[HarryPhishnuts]

So as they say the stash writes the story and the story builds the stash. I did a little alternative history built around a set of whiffs that I want to build. The timeline basically starts in the last 50s to the early 80s. The timeline is driven by a couple of key what-if events that will be pretty clear once you read it. Now obviously I had to take some liberties with the likelihood of some events and decisions but in the end it's really about wanting to build some cool kits.

Now the really interesting part of this was I took a rather stale timeline and fed it to Googles Gemini AI. We've been playing around with a number of AI tools at work lately. I asked it to take the time line and write it up for an aviation-history audience. And what it came up with is actually pretty good. It pulled in some additional relevant facts that I didn't give it and had a pretty good understanding of the context of the events and their meaning.  I DO NOT CLAIM THIS IS MINE at all. I'm not that good a writer. 

1956: The USAF Ultra Sabre Lives
In a move with lasting repercussions, the USAF hedges its bets. The F-105 Thunderchief becomes the primary fighter-bomber, but production lines for the potent F-107 remain open, catering to allies seeking a dedicated strike platform. This dual-pronged approach sets the stage for a transatlantic twist.

West Germany's Fighter Feud (1957-1960):
The scramble is on as West Germany seeks a next-generation fighter to replace its aging F-84s and F-86s. The competition is fierce, with the American F-104 Starfighter, French Mirage III, and British English Electric Lightning all vying for the lucrative contract. However, a bribery scandal erupts in 1959, derailing the F-104 selection and casting a long shadow over its reputation.

Canada Steps Up (1958-1961):
In a surprising turn, Canada throws a curveball. They select the F-107 for license production under the designation CF-107, a decision likely influenced by the USAF's continued interest in the platform. This bolsters Canada's nuclear strike capabilities and complements their existing CF-105 Arrow interceptor program.

The Rise of the F-8I Crusader (1962-1964):
Across the Atlantic, a new contender emerges. Chance-Vought Aerospace (CVA) proposes a collaborative venture with West Germany to develop a multi-role export fighter based on the F-8 Crusader. Dubbed the F-8I Crusader (International), this aircraft promises advanced capabilities at a competitive price. The F-8I boasts a strengthened wing, additional air-to-ground ordnance options, and co-production agreements with Messerschmitt and Dornier, solidifying a significant international partnership. The F-8I's success lures further partners, with Italy's Fiat and Spain's CASA joining the program in 1964.

UK Military Aviation Scramble (1964-1967):
While the F-8I enjoys international acclaim, the United Kingdom faces a different reality. The cancellation of new aircraft carriers forces the Royal Navy to re-evaluate its fighter needs. The high cost of retrofitting existing carriers and the F-4 Phantom program leads to the abandonment of the FAA's F-4K/M project. Desperate for a solution, the FAA explores two seat a carrier-borne variant of the F-8 (designated FR.8), leveraging the French F-8E(FN) and equipped with Red Top air-to-air missiles. The RAF, meanwhile, opts for a straight purchase of F-4D Phantoms however budget constraints result in only 78 Phantoms purchased. As an offset to the injured UK aerospace industry and capitalizing on the groundwork laid for the F-4K/M, an agreement with the US is reached to establish MRO facilities in the UK for servicing all European based Phantoms. However, the UK's woes continue as the joint AFVG program with France is cancelled in 1967, further narrowing their strike options. Mounting costs and project delays with the F-111K program force its cancellation as well, leaving the RAF without a clear path forward for either deep strike or air defense needs.

The Rise and Fall of Panavia (1968-1973):
In an attempt to forge a European air combat solution, Panavia, a multinational consortium formed by the UK, West Germany, Netherlands, and Italy, is established in 1968. However, tensions and disagreements over design philosophy and cost-sharing lead to the Netherlands and Italy pulling out by 1972, effectively dissolving the consortium.

A Scramble for Solutions (1974-1978):
With the collapse of Panavia in 1972, the landscape for European fighter development shifts dramatically. West Germany moves first by reigniting its partnership with CVA, this time for a follow-on to the successful F-8I. The ambitious "Super Crusader" emerges, based on the Super V-1000 proposal, offering improved performance and multi-role capabilities. The F-8S Super Crusader program is officially launched in 1974, featuring a strengthened wing with multiple hardpoints, a powerful engine, and a new multi-mode radar
Italy, left without a clear path forward for a new generation fighter, makes a surprising move. In a bid to bridge the capability gap, they select the Swedish SAAB 37 Viggen for its air-air, air-ground and reconnaissance needs, striking a co-production deal with Aeritalia.

The UK's Fighter Conundrum (1974-1977):
With the MRCA no longer a solution the UK is back to the drawing board.  The F-4E Phantom offers a familiar, if aging option, but the F-8S Super Crusader's multi-role capabilities and potential German collaboration are tempting. American offerings like the F-15 and F-14 boast impressive performance, but their high cost and air superiority focus make them less suitable. The dream of an indigenous British multi-role fighter lingers, but the harsh reality of financial constraints and the need for foreign partnerships becomes increasingly evident.

The Seeds of a New Partnership (1976-1978):
The UK, closely following the American F-16 and F-18 competitions, recognizes the limitations of single-engine fighters and the improbability of securing production licenses for the Hornet. Domestic development is a dead end without international collaboration. Enter Dassault Aviation of France with a bold proposal in 1977. The Mirage 4000, a privately funded new fighter project, is presented as a potential partnership opportunity. Intrigued by the Mirage 4000's capabilities and the prospect of manufacturing partnerships, the British government joins forces with Dassault on the program. Canada, also seeking a replacement for their aging CF-101 Voodoos (interceptors) and CF-107s (strike aircraft),joins the project in 1978. Canadair becomes a major partner, securing licensing and production rights for a variant designated the CF-4000.

Taking Flight: The New Guard Arrives (1977-1982):
The skies come alive with new metal as the first F-8S Super Crusader takes flight in 1977. Deliveries to Germany and Spain begin in 1979, while Greece selects the F-8S to replace its aging Mirage IIIs. Meanwhile, the first prototype of the Mirage 4000, designated FGR.3 by the RAF, takes to the skies in 1979. This advanced aircraft boasts a powerful engine, a sophisticated radar, and a variety of weapon options, solidifying its position as a true multi-role fighter. By 1982, the RAF receives its first operational FGR.3s, while the Canadian Air Force welcomes its initial CF-4000s. The arrival of these new fighters significantly bolsters the airpower of both nations, marking a turning point in their aerial defense capabilities.Australia even places an order for the FGR.3, further solidifying the type's international presence.

Looking Ahead: A New Era Dawns
This alternate timeline paints a fascinating picture of what could have been. The F-8I Crusader's success as a collaborative program paves the way for future partnerships, while the UK's struggle to find a suitable fighter highlights the challenges of balancing cost, capability needs, and international cooperation. The Mirage 4000 stands as a testament to the potential of privately funded, multinational fighter development. As we reach 1982, one wonders: Will this new era of international collaboration in combat aircraft design continue? How will the performance of the F-8S Super Crusader compare to its American counterparts? Will the success of the Mirage 4000 program pave the way for even deeper Franco-British-Canadian cooperation on future projects? This alternate history leaves us with a multitude of intriguing possibilities, a testament to the ever-evolving landscape of military aviation.


As I said I thought this was an interesting thought experiment as well as playing around with AI. I put the kits I want to build in italics so in the end this just shows I've got a lot of kits to build 

[NARSES2]

That's a really interesting time line